By Ian Laird
@UneducatedU on Twitter
All of the selections I make are under the assumption that teams won’t be trading up or down which obviously won’t happen as in any given year close to a third of the first round picks swap hands on or just before draft day. I’m trying to predict picks based off of need and talent available so this is not just selecting the best player available or who fits best with the team, it is a combination of the two.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
At this point all arrows seem to be pointing towards the Arizona Cardinals taking Kyler Murray with the first overall pick in the draft. Kyler is a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s system, and after posting some of the worst offensive numbers in the league last season this Cardinals offense needs some injection of energy to resuscitate it. The apathetic nature of many of their fans also means drafting someone like Kyler, who can wow people with his athleticism, might be enough to generate some excitement in the franchise. Kyler is also a better pocket passer than many people have given him credit for and if he can hit his talent ceiling he will be much better than last year’s first round pick Josh Rosen.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Nick Bosa missed all but three games this season after tearing muscles in his core and then deciding to sit out the remainder of the season to recover and focus on training for the NFL. There will be some concern about durability because of that, but he has generally been received as the best overall prospect in this class and can become a cornerstone for a franchise. For the 49ers, they have gone the route of drafting an edge rusher in the first round three of the past four years drafting Arik Armstead in 2015, DeForest Buckner in 2016, and Solomon Thomas in 2017. So far Buckner has been the only player to not disappoint racking up 12 sacks last season, but he along with Armstead have been shifted to the interior leaving a hole on the edge. This feels like a must get right pick for the Niners and Bosa seems like a can’t miss prospect.
3. New York Jets
Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Quinnen Williams is another seemingly can’t miss prospect along the defensive line as he is a terror on the interior with the physicality and size to collapse pockets. In the New York Jets 3-4 defense he would work well as a nose tackle eating up double teams to free up Leonard Williams to wreak havoc as well. The Jets have somewhat of a need on the edge, but if they have two interior linemen who can occupy three offensive linemen at a time that will allow their current edge rushers to work one on one to get to the quarterback. Not only is Williams a pass rushing monster, he is also an excellent run stuffer who can fill gaps and shed offensive linemen to seal holes as soon as they appear.
4. Oakland Raiders
Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
After trading away Khalil Mack last season their lack of a star pass rusher became painfully evident. Jon Gruden has said on multiple occasions that finding a star pass rusher is one of the most difficult things to do in football, but in Josh Allen he has chance of getting one. Allen consistently moved up draft boards as the season went along showing massive improvement both as a pass rusher and as a sideline to sideline missile who can run down opposing running backs on the edge and drop into coverage at times. As a senior he is also one of the more polished prospects and should be an instant impact player for the Raiders.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Devin White, ILB, LSU
Devin White is one of the quickest and most athletic prospects in the draft and is capable of becoming an every down defender in the heart of a team’s defense. With Kwon Alexander leaving an already depleted and shaky Buccaneers linebacking corps they are desperately in need of help over the middle of the field, and White can provide that. He has the speed and intelligence to make reads and get out to the perimeter quickly, and he has the strength and size to meet runners up the middle when they hit a hole. He also managed to find his way to the quarterback at times, and could be an effective situational pass rusher in certain blitz packages.
6. New York Giants
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
There is some talk that the Giants aren’t enamored with Dwayne Haskins, and if that’s the case they could go the route of either drafting the next best quarterback (likely Drew Lock), or they could draft for another position here and then grab Daniel Jones either at the top of the second round or later in the first round if they decide to trade down from their seventeenth overall pick which they got from the Browns. I still believe they will take Haskins though as they already passed on a quarterback in last year’s draft which was full of top prospects at the position and they really can’t afford to wait around for another year and hope Eli Manning gives them another year. After trading Odell Beckham Jr. the Giants need to hit the reset button offensively and build a new system centered around Haskins, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard who just inked an extension. Haskins is a ridiculously talented pocket passer, and while his athletic limitations mean he won’t be scrambling for yardage, he has enough mobility to stay upright in the pocket and buy some time.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
In getting Nick Foles the Jaguars have made it clear that they want to win now, so they need to address their offensive line where they desperately need help. Jawaan Taylor is the best pure tackle in the draft as Jonah Williams of Alabama might be more talented than him, but he likely could end up playing guard instead of tackle where the Jaguars have more of a need. At 6’5″ and 312 pounds Taylor is a mountain of a man, but he has nimble feet and his footwork allowed him to make up for some of his other mistakes in college. Taylor is pretty raw so he will have a steep learning curve, but if he can grow throughout the season he could become a top tier pass protector on the right side of the line.
8. Detroit Lions
Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
After losing Ezekiel Ansah the Lions went out and signed Trey Flowers, and in adding someone like Montez Sweat in the draft they can create a situation similar to what Denver had last season with Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. It was revealed that Sweat has a heart condition that could potentially affect his draft stock, but Mississippi State coaches said it never affected him in games, and the combine staff allowed him to participate even after it was discovered indicating it might not be as big of an issue as it some might think. The Lions have other needs that they might look at, but in a draft that is so top heavy with talent along the defensive line drafting nearly anyone else here would be a bit of a reach.
9. Buffalo Bills
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Ed Oliver was at one point projected to be a top two or three pick in the draft, but an injury this season and some average performances led to him falling slightly to the edge of the top ten. He was a great run stopper in college and frequently managed to get in the backfield to rack up tackles for loss and sacks. Playing for a non power five team Oliver likely didn’t get the attention he deserved, and additionally he didn’t need to grow as much as other players because of how physically dominant he was against some of his opponents meaning he likely has plenty of room to grow. For the Bills who were one of the worst teams against the run Oliver is a perfect fit and they will likely look past some other needs like adding offensive line help and receivers for Josh Allen in order to strengthen their defense.
10. Denver Broncos
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Drew Lock has been one of the biggest risers up draft boards since the season ended moving from a fringe first rounder all the way into the conversation for a possible top five pick if someone were to trade up. The Broncos might get worried sitting and waiting until the tenth pick to draft him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they move up if they believe he is the quarterback of the future for them. In trading for Joe Flacco the Broncos have made it clear that they are looking for a quarterback in this draft, and GM John Elway has been reported as being infatuated with Lock’s arm strength. There are accuracy issues with Lock, but those can easily be sorted out as he develops. Lock also has great pocket awareness and has enough athleticism and mobility to scramble around and extend plays when the pocket breaks down.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
After parting ways with Vontaze Burfict Cincinnati will be more than happy to get a replacement for him in Devin Bush. In terms of pure talent Bush is among the top five or six players in the draft, but he doesn’t necessarily have the size or ability to generate pressure which many teams crave. His quickness and agility is nearly unrivaled and he is arguably the best coverage linebacker in this class with the ability to line up over tight ends or slot receivers. He also has the intelligence and game knowledge to be able to read and diagnose plays and get anywhere on the field in an instant. Bush is the type of prospect who can become the leader of a defense for years to come and the Bengals would be getting a steal if he fell this far.
12. Green Bay Packers
T.J. Hockensen, TE, Iowa
T.J. Hockensen has drawn a wide range of superlatives heading into the draft with many people comparing him to Rob Gronkowski. I don’t know if he can live up to those comparisons, but one thing is clear, in college Hockensen displayed the rare skillset of being an elite receiver and an effective blocker as well. He is big, long, and athletic making him a matchup nightmare for opposing teams who will be forced to stick either slower linebackers or undersized corners and safeties on Hockensen in coverage, and has excellent hands catching 74 percent of his targets last season. For the Packers after spending plenty of draft picks on defense (only three picks from the first three rounds have been spent on offensive players by the Packers in the past five years) the Packers need to start replenishing the talent around Aaron Rodgers and give him some weapons to work with. Hockensen will be the first step in that direction and with Jimmy Graham already on the roster he will be afforded the time and opportunities to grow and develop while also seeing the field a fair bit.
13. Miami Dolphins
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Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
With the top three quarterbacks already coming off the board the Dolphins will likely end up waiting to draft their quarterback until next year. Instead they should focus on rebuilding both lines as they are in desperate need of offensive line help and also could use an interior defensive lineman given their lack of depth at the position. Wilkins is a physical beast at well over 300 pounds and well above six feet tall and he piled up sacks and tackles for loss during his four year career at Clemson. Having spent all four years in college and winning two national championships Wilkins is slightly more developed than some of the other players in this draft and he can be a plug and play option for the Dolphins who need as much help as they can get.
14. Atlanta Falcons
Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State
The Falcons need defensive line help especially if they decide to move on from Vic Beasley Jr. at some point before the season. Burns is yet another freak defensive talent in this draft, and is a near perfect replacement if the Falcons do move on from Beasley. If not his incredible speed off the edge will cause problems for anyone who has to face him and he will strengthen what was a weak throughout last season. At 6’5″ he is lengthy as well and at only 249 pounds he has plenty of room to add more muscle to his frame. If his production from college manages to translate into production in the NFL Burns could easily rack up double digit sack numbers on a regular basis.
15. Washington Redskins
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Unless the Redskins are enamored with anyone left at this point I would honestly expect them to trade down. They have invested heavily in their offensive line and defensive front in the past several drafts and the results so far have been promising. Where they have struggled is at the skill positions, the secondary, and at quarterback. With Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock already off the board at this point the dropoff to the next tier of quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Will Grier, and Jarrett Stidham is steep enough that I wouldn’t think the Redskins would be desperate enough to reach for them here. The same goes for players on the perimeter such as cornerbacks and wide receivers as this draft doesn’t have as much top end talent at those positions. If the Redskins do decide to stick it out at fifteen though Marquise Brown would be the best option available to them. He would almost immediately upgrade a receiving corps that features Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson as its top duo. Brown is one of the fastest players in the draft and is capable of making big plays in the open field after the catch.
16. Carolina Panthers
Jonah Williams, OT/G, Alabama
Given how many holes the Panthers have or will have in the future once contracts expire Jonah Williams will slot in right away. Williams is incredibly versatile having played left tackle for Alabama in college though their is some expectation that he can play either right tackle or even move to guard. Williams has great foot and hand work and after playing 44 straight games for Alabama he has developed much more than most other offensive linemen usually have heading into their rookie season, and it should quell any fears about injuries or durability issues.
17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns)
Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
After trading away Olivier Vernon to get Kevin Zeitler and bolster their offensive line the Giants need reinforcements along the defensive front. Rashan Gary could be an instant impact player as his athleticism and size are incredible and will allow him to compete with veteran offensive linemen. He was somewhat disappointing at Michigan never really reaching the level of production that one would expect given his physical tools, but part of that is due to Gary playing as an interior lineman instead of on the edge. If he lines up outside on a tackle his quickness will cause problems for linemen and if they attempt to negate it by starting farther back from the line he can build up momentum before hitting them with incredible strength on a bull rush or use his agility to get by them. Gary has the potential to become a star sack artist and would give the Giants some much needed help at an area that was already weak before their trade of Vernon.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College
The Vikings only have two guards currently on their roster in Aviante Collins and Danny Isidora after terminating the contract of Mike Remmers and seeing Nick Easton leave for New Orleans in free agency. Collins spent most of 2018 on the IR after suffering an elbow injury and has yet to start a game appearing in three games in 2017, and Isidora only has three starts, one in 2017 and two last season. Chris Lindstrom is the best guard in this class, and he might be the best offensive linemen overall. Not playing a premier position like tackle could cause him to fall behind some other offensive linemen though, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is an absolutely dominant force with incredible athleticism. Unlike many offensive linemen he has also been extremely consistent through his four years at Boston College, and could be a plug and play starter for a team with playoff ambitions like the Vikings.
19. Tennessee Titans
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Cody Ford, G/OT, Oklahoma
Cody Ford is arguably the best run blocker in this draft making him ideal for the Tennessee Titans who had the second least pass attempts and the ninth most rush attempts last season. Right guard is their weakest spot along the line as well with Aaron Stinnie slotted to start their next season even though he only has one game under his belt. Ford still has a ways to go as a pass protector, but his size and footwork is solid enough that he can manage to work his way through the season. For the Titans who could potentially see Marcus Mariota become a free agent after this season they need to set up the team around him to keep him upright so they can properly assess whether they want to keep him around.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
This pick feels fairly obvious as the Steelers’ secondary got absolutely shredded last season and they will be desperate for help on the back end. Byron Murphy isn’t necessarily the most athletic corner in this draft, but he frequently came up with big plays during his time in college. In just twenty games he managed to grab seven interceptions and break up 27 passes and given how many holes the Steelers secondary has they will likely be reliant on big plays defensively to get off the field.
21. Seattle Seahawks
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
After trading away Frank Clark the Seahawks are extremely thin at edge rusher and no one on their roster registered more than three sacks last season. Clelin Ferrell is one of the more polished players in this draft having stayed for all four seasons at Clemson and amassing 27 sacks and five forced fumbles in just 44 games. He doesn’t necessarily have the upside of some of the other edge rushers in this draft due to limits on his athleticism, but given Seattle’s win now mentality they won’t be worrying as much about future production as a rebuilding team would.
22. Baltimore Ravens
Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
With their run heavy offense behind Lamar Jackson the Ravens need to find a true number one back after rotating last season between Gus Edwards and Alex Collins. Having signed Mark Ingram in the offseason to a three year contract this move might seem a bit redundant, but the Ravens have an out in the Ingram deal after two years, and given the history of running backs flaming out after receiving multiyear deals past their age 30 season I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens take that out. Additionally Josh Jacobs has a much higher upside as the most complete running back in this class with the ability to pound the ball between the tackles, bounce outside and showcase his speed, catch passes and make plays in the open field, pass block, and even return kicks and punts. Having another back to take the brunt of the load during his rookie season might prove to be a benefit for Jacobs as well as it will preserve his legs somewhat as he acclimates to the speed and physicality of the NFL.
23. Houston Texans
Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
The Texans line was atrocious last year allowing Deshaun Watson to be sacked an incredible 62 times last season. Erik McCoy who could be a center or a guard in the NFL wouldn’t be a bad pick here either, but Andre Dillard plays at a more important position and tackles are often harder to come by in this league. Dillard is arguably the best pass blocker in this class and he will immediately improve this offensive line and help keep Watson upright next season. With his long arms and 6’5″ frame Dillard can swallow up edge rushers who will have to go much wider to try and get around him buying Watson precious time, and he has shown nimble feet to be able to move out in space or slide to stay in front of rushers.
24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears)
Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
Having added an elite pass rusher in Josh Allen already the Raiders will look to fill in their other numerous holes on defense, and I would expect them to start with their secondary which was absolutely abysmal last season. Johnathan Abram is a hard hitting safety who can patrol the middle of the field or come up into the box to stop the run. He still needs to progress in coverage but he has the physical tools to become an above level player in coverage and could effectively cover tight ends and slot receivers.
25. Philadelphia Eagles
Darnell Savage Jr., S/CB, Maryland
The secondary was a revolving door for the Eagles last season as they were forced to deal with injuries to nearly every integral player on the back end through the final half of the season. While those players are now healthy for the start of this season their issues with injuries will lead to questions about their durability and ability to stay on the field for a full season. Darnell Savage Jr. still needs some time to develop which he would get with the Eagles, but if they do see their ranks thinned by injuries once more he will be more than capable of filling in as a temporary starter given his speed and size should allow him to hang with opposing receivers at least on a physical basis.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
The Indianapolis Colts showed massive improvement in nearly all areas on both offense and defense last season, but they still have a few more holes that they could patch up. Juan Thornhill is versatile and could fill multiple holes for the Colts depending on where they want to position him as he can play both safety and corner, two positions where they reasonably could be looking to improve. Thornhill has great size at 6’0″ and 205 lbs. and showcased great athleticism at the combine to catch the eye of scouts. He is also adept at getting stopping the run game as well as working in coverage as his size makes him an intimidating presence in the box when he steps up to fill gaps created by opposing blockers, and last season opposing quarterbacks were only fifteen of 42 when targeting Thornhill as the primary defender in coverage.
27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys)
Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
Irv Smith Jr. is a more complete pass catcher at the moment than T.J. Hockensen, and while he is a worse pass blocker than Hockensen his immediate impact as a receiver will arguably allow him to have a more impressive rookie season than Hockensen. After adding Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Isaiah Crowell the Raiders added plenty of weapons in the offseason, but they still need a tight end. Smith will be a perfect fit and with Brown drawing double teams underneath and Williams taking the top off of defenses as a deep threat he will have plenty of space to operate.
28. Los Angeles Chargers
Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
The Chargers already have a solid secondary with a decent enough linebacking corps and a well rounded offense that they can afford to splurge with this draft pick on whatever the feel like. In drafting Dexter Lawrence the Chargers would create one of the most fearsome front threes in football with Lawrence being bracketed by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Lawrence won’t necessarily rack up sacks, but he can generate pressure up the middle and eat up double teams, and then against the run he can collapse holes with his size and strength.
29. Seattle Seahawks (via Kansas City Chiefs)
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
After last season it became apparent that the Seahawks need some new blood at wide receiver. Doug Baldwin spent a large portion of last season either out or hobbled by injuries and he is approaching the downslope of his career as he is currently 30 years old. Tyler Lockett has also had his own fair share of injury issues during his career so far, and behind those two on the depth chart there really isn’t much left. D.K. Metcalf wowed everyone at the combine with absurd athleticism and would provide an immediate deep threat. He isn’t a technician in terms of route running and even with his athleticism his agility isn’t anything amazing making his entrance and exits from cuts somewhat slow and predictable. The upside is there for Metcalf and he will be given the chance to develop behind Baldwin and Lockett before eventually being asked to assume a starting role.
30. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints)
Erik McCoy, C/G, Texas A&M
The Packers will definitely look to upgrade their offensive line considering they will likely move on from Ryan Bulaga at right tackle and Billy Turner isn’t set in stone as the starter at right guard. Erik McCoy is a better center than guard, but he is excellent in the run game which is arguably a more key skill for interior linemen than pass blocking and has the versatility to shift along the middle three positions. McCoy could also slide into the center position after the 2020 season when Justin Linsley’s contract runs out if he develops into a more talented player than Linsley and the Packers can find another guard. Dalton Risner could also go here considering he can play virtually every position except left tackle along the offensive line, but McCoy is a bit more talented with more upside at the pivot position.
31. Los Angeles Rams
Garrett Bradbury, C/G, North Carolina State
Garrett Bradbury is similar to McCoy in that he can play either either as a center or as a guard, and with the Rams losing both John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold they need help on the interior. Bradbury showed incredible agility and footwork at the combine making him an ideal guard to pull on counters and giving him the ability to switch from one double team to another in pass protection quickly. Bradbury is a solid lineman and could be a nice plug and play option for a team like the Rams who are light on picks but need players who can contribute immediately this season.
32. New England Patriots
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
With Rob Gronkowski retiring the Patriots could be in the market for a new tight end, and in Noah Fant they would be getting a ridiculously talented receiver. Fant blew away scouts with his combine numbers securing the top measurements in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump for tight ends. Fant is also a versatile player who the Patriots can shift all over the field as Bill Belichick enjoys doing. His speed could make him a reasonable threat in the slot, while he also has the size to line up like a traditional tight end or on the outside where he can take advantage of smaller tight ends. Fant won’t offer much as a blocker, but given Belichick’s emphasis on fundamentals like blocking I would expect him to develop fairly quickly in that area if the Patriots do draft him.
Further Reading
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