By Ian Laird
@UneducatedU on Twitter
This is a weekly look at the top soccer leagues in Europe where I select the ten games from the coming “weekend” (Friday through Monday) that I believe to be the most compelling and breakdown the game and the stories surrounding the players, coaches, and clubs that are involved. The emphasis will be on the top four leagues, EPL, La Liga, Serie A, and the Bundesliga, but I will occasionally feature games in other leagues like Ligue 1 or the Dutch Eredivisie. These are only limited to domestic league games, not Champions League, Euro League, or domestic cups, and will be games that I believe to be interesting, not necessarily just the games with the best teams involved. With that being said lets get into it.
1. Tottenham at Manchester City
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Saturday, April 20th 7:30 am ET
For the third time in a matter of days these two teams will square off after facing each other in the quarterfinals of the Champions League. This game will definitely have lessened stakes than those two previous meetings, but there is still plenty to play for in this game as despite advancing to the semifinals of the competition, Tottenham’s position in the Champions League next season is far from solidified while City are still embroiled in a fierce battle for the Premier League title. For Tottenham the biggest concern going into the weekend will be how they recover from the emotionally draining match this past Wednesday. Heading into the match Tottenham had gotten a bit of a respite facing a despondent Huddersifeld side that had confirmed its place as a relegation side some weeks ago. They took advantage with a 4-0 victory further extending their solid record without Harry Kane and building some much needed confidence heading into the second leg of the quarterfinals. One would’ve thought that confidence would’ve been shattered when Raheem Sterling put the hosts ahead 1-0 within four minutes drawing the two sides level across the two legs, but Tottenham were quick to respond with Son Heung-min producing goals in the seventh and tenth minutes of the game. The game continued at its frenetic pace though with Bernardo Silva picking up an eleventh minute goal and Sterling earning a brace with a 21st minute effort. At that point the tie was level across the two legs at 3-3 but Spurs had the advantage on away goals. The first half petered out relatively harmlessly, but there was one important moment when Moussa Sissoko went down with an injury and Mauricio Pochettino was faced with the dilemma of either subbing on his only midfield replacement Oliver Skipp who has all of 390 first team minutes under his belt at the age of eighteen, or shoehorning together a midfield and by bringing on someone else. He opted for the latter selecting Fernando Llorente and moving Dele Alli into a deep lying midfield role. In the second half it was clear Alli was out of his depth at the position and City frequently and ruthlessly targeted him eventually getting a 59th minute goal with Alli being one of the main Spurs players who was culpable. With all of the momentum shifted City’s way Tottenham improbably scored off a corner kick with Llorente scoring the goal that drew the two legged tie even at four. The play was one of two big moments in which VAR was called upon with the other being a disallowed goal for City in the dying embers of the game. In both cases the calls were correct with a potential handball against Llorente correctly no being called due to the positioning of his arm and the fact that he did not direct the ball into the goal with his hand. In the case of the disallowed City goal Sergio Aguero was in fact in an offsides position when the ball came off of Bernardo Silva’s foot. Despite the win City exposed some glaring errors with Tottenham’s squad. The fullbacks, Danny Rose and Kieran Trippier, were left floundering on many occasions struggling to deal with the City midfielders and wings when they would overload one side. Alli clearly didn’t work in a deep lying midfield role when he needed to carry out any defensive duties. Llorente scored the winning goal, but in bringing him on Pochettino stunted any threat Tottenham posed on the counter with Son and Lucas Moura. Hugo Lloris once again didn’t look particularly convincing. And, perhaps most importantly, Christian Eriksen once again didn’t play great with his horrid back pass almost leading to City’s last minute winning goal if not for the outstretched foot of Bernardo Silva. Given their recent rash of injuries and lack of depth I’m not sure that Spurs can necessarily sort out these problems down the stretch, so they will simply be holding on and trying to string together enough results to finish top four and possibly make their first European Cup final ever. For City it is now three times they have failed to reach the finals under Pep Guardiola having reached the semis just once in his first season in charge. The disappointment is obvious given the massive amount of investment they have put in their squad in recent years, especially in comparison with Tottenham who didn’t bring in a single player in the past two transfer windows. The result ends their hopes of winning the quadruple, but they can’t get caught up on this result as they still have a Premier League title to play for. Given what just happened and Spurs’ thin squad it’s hard to not see City dominating this game.
3-1 Manchester City wins
2. Manchester United at Everton
Sunday, April 21st 8:30 am ET
After falling 1-0 at home and having to operate without Luke Shaw it seemed like a tall order to expect Manchester United to produce a comeback against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. Those assumptions ended up being proven true as they were thoroughly thumped 3-0 with Lionel Messi running riot for most of the game. The game started off auspiciously for Manchester United with Marcus Rashford’s toepoked effort going just inches high off the crossbar. United created several other chances in the opening minutes, but none would come closer than Rashford’s which came within the first minute of the game. Instead the story of the game for United would be poor play out of the back as both of Messi’s goals would come on turnovers along the back line within minutes of each other. Within a four minute span Messi would put Barcelona ahead 2-0 giving them a nearly insurmountable advantage. A Philippe Coutinho wonderstrike just past the hour mark virtually sealed the game away, and for United they are now left scrambling for a Champions League spot. The magic from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s hot start has finally worn off as United have continued to struggle for form since the start of March when they barely scraped by relegation threatened Southampton. They managed to pull of their miracle comeback against PSG directly after that, but that has been one of the lone bright spots recently. They lost to Arsenal and Wolves in the FA Cup, they looked poor against Watford en route to a 2-1 victory, they then lost in the league to Wolves, followed by their first leg loss to Barcelona, and then prior to this second leg loss they got their two goals against West Ham on Paul Pogba penalties failing to create much offensively through the flow of play. Part of that might fall on the fact that Solskjaer doesn’t have the players he wants for this team, but you just have to look at his team selection against Barcelona to see he is likely equally to blame. In the first leg the switch to a back three backfired completely, then in the second leg Nemanja Matic who was back from injury was included in the squad but not the starting lineup, with both Scott McTominay and Fred having their nightmare moments defensively which you think Matic would’ve been able to avoid. Then defensively the absence of Luke Shaw meant Solskjaer had to get a bit creative, but he might’ve overthought it too much moving Ashley Young to left-back, Victor Lindelof to right-back and inserting Phil Jones at center-back. Young has some experience on the left side, but he frequently got turned inside out by Messi and Jones who was the left-sided center-back didn’t offer much protection. A better option may have been to keep Lindelof in the middle and have Diogo Dalot on the right side meaning one of their best center-backs would be available to help on Messi giving Young more license to be aggressive in his marking of the Argentine playmaker. United will now have their attention solely focused on the Premier League where they are currently in sixth place. A win this weekend could potentially move them up as high as fourth, and facing an Everton side with nothing to play for who recently lost to already relegated Fulham, you have to think they’ll take care of business as they attempt to get back on track.
2-0 Manchester United wins
3. Liverpool at Cardiff City
Sunday, April 21st 11:00 am ET
Liverpool have progressed to their second consecutive Champions League semifinals after topping off Porto 4-1 in the second leg to win 6-1 on aggregate across the two legs. Sandwiched between their two Champions League quarterfinal wins is a massive three points that they picked up against Chelsea to keep their Premier League title hopes alive as well as they restored their two point advantage over Manchester City who have a game in hand in the Premier League. This match against Cardiff City will be the last time they face a team in the Premier League with anything still to play for as Cardiff are currently two points away from safety with one more game played than Brighton Hove Albion. Their other matches will come against Huddersfield who are already relegated, Newcastle who may put in some effort due to the bad blood between these two teams but are an otherwise harmless opponent, and Wolves who sit in eighth place well out of contention for a top six spot. With that in mind they should be able to pick up all twelve points to finish out the season which would put the pressure on Manchester City to win out as well. The one thing City won’t have to worry about though is the Champions League where Liverpool will have to face the prospect of taking down Barcelona if they want to make it to the final in Madrid. That will obviously drain a lot of energy and effort out of them which could prove damaging to their Premier League title hopes, but this squad appears to be built for situations like this. The return of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain means the midfield now runs seven deep with Fabinho, Naby Keita, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jordan Henderson, James Milner, and Adam Lallana rounding out the other six. Along the back line Joel Matip has been able to step up in big games at center-back while Joe Gomez is back from injury after being a frequent starting eleven contributor earlier in the season. Then up top there is the obvious starting trio of Sadi Mane, Mohamed Salah, and Roberto Firmino while Divock Origi, Daniel Sturridge, and Xherdan Shaqiri could all be potential options. Jurgen Klopp will likely have to reach all the way down his depth chart to successfully keep his best players well rested for the games against Barcelona, but they have the depth and skill to survive without some of their best players being in the starting lineup.
3-0 Liverpool wins
4. Real Sociedad at Barcelona
Saturday, April 20th 2:45 pm ET
Last weekend Barcelona gambled resting virtually everyone except Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Arturo Vidal, and Ousmane Dembele against Huesca in the hopes that they would be fully rested and prepared to face Manchester United. The use of mostly B-team players and a new formation resulted in a 0-0 draw against the bottom side in La Liga. The result will temporarily put their title celebrations in the league on hold as an Atletico Madrid win means their lead in La Liga is down to nine points with six games remaining. A comeback at this point for Atletico seems out of the question, but Barcelona will have to wait at least a few more weeks before they clinch the title. Of their six remaining games one will come against Getafe who are fighting for a Champions League spot, two will come against Levante and Celta Vigo who are locked in a relegation battle, and the other three will be against teams with nothing to play for. In their all important second leg against Manchester United, Barcelona seemed to be asleep to start the game only waking up after United nearly scored multiple times which would’ve drawn them level on aggregate. Once Barcelona woke up and got rolling though they were unstoppable. Lionel Messi came alive scoring two brilliant solo goals, though an error by David De Gea certainly helped on the second goal. With a three goal lead Barcelona were comfortable just shutting things down, and they did so effectively, denying United any real chances past the first half hour. A third goal for the oft-criticized Philippe Coutinho on a brilliant golazo ended any hopes of a last gasp United comeback and gave Barcelona their first semifinal appearance in the Champions League since the 2014-15 season when they went on to win the competition. Barcelona will be facing Liverpool in the semifinals, and the tie really could go either way. Barcelona undoubtedly have the best player on the field as Messi is the best player in the world and arguably the best of all time. He alone can tip entire games in Barcelona’s favor regardless of the opponent and it would be far from a surprise if he was the difference maker in the next round. On the other hand Barcelona lacks the balance of Liverpool with their defense being incredibly shaky as Sergio Busquets and Gerard Pique have both had down years after progressing into their 30’s. The matches seem like they will be wide open with plenty of scoring and you have to think whoever advances will also be the favorite to win the entire competition.
2-1 Barcelona wins
5. Valencia at Real Betis
Sunday, April 21st 2:45 pm ET
Despite drawing half their games this season Valencia have done well to move into a top six position with only a three point gap to a Champions League spot. They have an easy enough schedule to end the season other than a game next week against Atletico Madrid and you could realistically envision them finishing in the top four. The one thing they have going against them is they are now in the semifinals of the Europa League as well, and they could possibly choose to focus on that competition instead as a victory there would qualify them for the Champions League. In the quarterfinals they had to overcome fellow Spanish side Villarreal, and they dominated the tie across to legs winning 5-1 on aggregate. They will face Arsenal in the semifinals, and you have to think they will like their chances as the Gunners are locked in an arguably fiercer competition for a top four spot domestically and have been wildly inconsistent this season at times letting teams dominate them like Watford least weekend despite the Hornets being down a man. They lack any true star power and they don’t have any one player that they can lean on in a big moment, but they are incredibly deep as evidenced by the fact that Jose Gaya, arguably their best player overall, has only played in two Europa League games so far, Goncalu Guedes their leading goal scorer has started four times, and both Dani Parejo and Carlos Soler have appeared in five games, yet Valencia have won five games and drawn once in the competition. They have plenty of youth as well and can afford to trot out a similar lineup consistently with less worry about fatigue or injuries so even as they they continue to fight on three fronts, the Copa Del Rey final is still in play, they won’t have to worry too much about squad rotation. Betis also have plenty to fight for as the season winds down as they are only six points behind Valencia for the final Europa League spot. A win this weekend would be massive to not only give them three points, but also to pull Valencia back within reach with only one more win needed to draw level on points, and a win this weekend would give them the tiebreaker in that scenario. Like Valencia they only really have one difficult remaining down the stretch with a game against Real Madrid in the final week of the season. After a recent cold stretch Giovani Lo Celso has scored three goals in the past two games for Betis and if they expect to get a result they will likely need him to shine once more.
3-2 Valencia wins
6. Werder Bremen at Bayern Munich
Saturday, April 20th 9:30 am ET
Bayern Munich’s gauntlet run towards the Bundesliga title featuring three games against sides still in contention for a European Cup spot got significantly more difficult last weekend. During their 4-1 win Manuel Neuer went down with an injury that will keep him out of this weekends game, the DFB Pokal semifinal midweek, and possibly the game against Nurnberg next week with a return likely coming before their home game against Hannover. Neuer is far from the pedestal of best goalkeeper in the world which he once held with a commanding grip for much of the early and mid 2010’s, but he is still easily among the best at his position and he has shown it multiple times this year. His backup, Sven Ulreich, is one of the better number twos in Europe having had plenty of experience as a starter, including as recently as last year when Neuer missed virtually the entire season, but he is a far cry from Neuer’s skill level and doesn’t have the same ability to read the game the way Neuer does, which has allowed Neuer to come flying off his line for clearances from positions that are closer to midfield than his own net. He also has had his fair share of horror moments in recent years including in big games such as against Real Madrid last year in the Champions League. There are some positives heading into the game such as the continued growth of some of the younger players with Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, and Leon Goretzka all getting on the scoresheet, and Mats Hummels and the rest of the defensive line seeming to settle a bit after nervy play throughout most of the season, but none of that will matter if Ulreich can’t come up big. For Werder Bremen they are fighting to keep their season alive as they are currently sitting in seventh and only really have a shot at sixth where Hoffenheim currently sit one point ahead of them as fifth place Borussia Monchengladbach are five points clear in the other Europa League spot. It has been an up and down season for Bremen and after tailing off through the winter months they have surged back up the standings rising as high as sixth two weeks ago. Of the teams fighting for a European Cup spot they arguably have the most difficult remaining schedule facing each of the top three and Hoffenheim, but if they can nick points off of Leipzig, Bayern, and Dortmund then three points against Hoffenheim (assuming the beat Fortuna Dusseldorf) might be enough to see them into sixth place.
2-2 draw
7. Borussia Dortmund at SC Freiburg
Sunday, April 21st 9:30 am ET
The title race nearly ended last week as Borussia Dortmund were somewhat lucky to get a win against Mainz. They scored with two quick first half goals to take a 2-0 lead, but after that they eased off the pedal allowing Mainz to get back in the game providing significant pressure on the Dortmund goal and dominating the chances. They came back to hit the woodwork twice before finally scoring a goal to pull within one, and then in the final seconds of the game they failed to convert multiple point blank chances as Roman Burki was forced to stop the ball with half of the ball already over the goal line. Dortmund, in the end, got the three points but once more they looked far from convincing. Jadon Sancho scored two goals in the game continuing his brilliant form this season, and so far he has been the only player to perform consistently through Dortmund’s recent period of poor form. Other players like Marco Reus, Christian Pulisic, Mario Gotze, and Raphael Guerreiro have had injury issues throughout the season disrupting their periods of good form and preventing them, especially during this second half, from developing a solid rhythm. Paco Alcacer also has dropped off recently after his electric goals per 90 minutes record to start the season with a seven game stretch lasting from late December through February where he didn’t score at all. Then he rebounded with two goals in two games, before picking up a minor injury which lasted one week and then returning for a game against Wolfsburg where he scored a brace and then finally missing the crucial match against Bayern with an injury. Without Alcacer Dortmund lack a true striker, so when he is off form they are reliant on both Reus and Gotze who both offer different skillsets. Dortmund are at their best when Alcacer is on form and they can play with Reus in a deeper role alongside Sancho and another winger underneath Alcacer. If they are to keep up this title chase and catch Bayern Munich they need Alcacer to stay fit and start scoring again, and against one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga he will have the perfect opportunity to get some easy opportunities.
3-0 Borussia Dortmund wins
8. Fiorentina at Juventus
Saturday, April 20th 12:00 pm ET
Juventus’ season ended in disappointing fashion as they rotated their squad ahead of their second leg match against Ajax resulting in a somewhat surprising 2-1 loss to SPAL, but their fresh legs couldn’t get the job done with Ajax picking up a 2-1 win to advance 3-2 on aggregate. It would be fair to say that Juventus played the first half to a draw with Ajax as each side traded blows creating chances and scoring a goal apiece through the first 45. Then in the second half though momentum swung Ajax’ way as they dominated the majority of the second period with Matthijs de Ligt getting the game winner. For Juventus the questions facing them center around how this was allowed to happen. Part of the answer is hidden in the fact that the rest of the Serie A simply wasn’t that good allowing Juventus to virtually sleepwalk through the past few months after building a commanding lead domestically as early as December. Once they were switched off there was evidence of their impending failure everywhere as they labored through games that should’ve been much easier. Second string players didn’t rise to the occasion when selected allowing the first team players to get complacent and comfortable with where they were at rather than pushing to be better and improve so they could win their first Champions League title since 1995-96. Their aging roster has been sluggish all season especially in the midfield. Their back line is even thinner with their third center back, Daniele Rugani struggling all season long whenever he appeared in relief of Giorgio Chiellini or Leonardo Bonucci while at the fullback positions each player has their own issues. Perhaps most damning though is their lack of production up top outside of Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo was often times their lone option or outlet, while their second best player, Paulo Dybala, struggled at times to break into the starting eleven and didn’t start in the first leg against Ajax and was subbed off at half time in the second leg. Douglas Costa has been injured for a large portion of the season as has Juan Cuadrado, while Mario Mandzukic’s age has been showing. Federico Bernardeschi and Moise Kean have been bright spots, but they haven’t been relied upon that heavily in big time moments. With so many of their players in the tail end of their careers Juventus don’t have the luxury of waiting a year to rebuild or reload, instead they must bring in players that can contribute now. I wouldn’t expect much roster turnover through the summer, but I would be surprised if Massimiliano Allegri doesn’t try to institute some sort of organizational change to either motivate the players more or make the team more flexible and able to adapt to different situations.
1-0 Juventus wins
9. Roma at Inter Milan
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Saturday, April 20th 2:30 pm ET
After looking like they wanted no part of Champions League football next season picking up only three points from a possible twelve in the month of March, Roma drew against Fiorentina and then won two straight matches to start off April and vault themselves back up into fifth and within one point of a Champions League spot. After allowing ten goals in March the defense has stepped up only allowing two goals so far this month allowing Roma to get two shutout wins. They still have a long ways to go with this game against Inter and another later in May against Juventus which will likely decide whether they finish top four, but the framework is there for Roma to go on a run down the stretch and qualify for the Champions League. Inter meanwhile have also put in some good performances recently to take themselves six points clear of the top four line and establish some measure of security with their top four position. Mauro Icardi’s return to the team has definitely provided an offensive jolt to the team with the Argentine forward scoring and getting an assist in his first game back and then putting in good performances against Atalanta as part of a 0-0 draw and Frosinone where he got a goal in their 3-1 win. Like Roma they still have some work to do as they will face both Juventus and Napoli after this, but their other three games come against teams in the bottom five, so you have to think that even if they drop points in those two games they should be able to pick up enough to finish in the top four.
2-1 Inter Milan wins
10. Monaco at PSG
Sunday, April 21st 3:00 pm ET
Monaco have continued their miraculous turnaround under Leonardo Jardim creating a four point gap to eighteenth place Dijon with a game in hand. They have consistently grinded out low scoring games under Jardim with no team scoring more than one goal in each of their past five games. With the quality of some of their players they are always capable of picking up a result of they can keep things close heading into the final stages of a game, and you expect they will continue to try to do so as they work to ensure safety. For PSG meanwhile their nightmare season continues to roll on as for the third straight game they had a chance to clinch the Ligue 1 title but failed to do so. First it was a 2-2 draw at home against Strasbourg, then they were beaten black and blue by a Lille side that has showed real ambition this season, finishing off PSG 5-1 with four different goal scorers and a Thomas Meunier own goal, and finally they lost to fourteenth place Nantes 3-2 midweek after squandering an early lead allowing three unanswered goals and never being able to respond. The Nantes game also marked the fourth straight game in which they didn’t travel with a full eighteen man squad once again showcasing just how thin they have spread themselves by chasing big money moves like Kylian Mbappe and Neymar leaving no money to improve squad depth. Eleven times this season they have traveled with seventeen or less players available, and that simply isn’t acceptable for a team that is supposed to have ambitions of a Champions League trophy. Due to financial fair play rules they may be limited in how much they can actually do this summer, but they need to do as much as possible if they have any hopes of keeping a hold on Mbappe and Neymar. Both superstar players made it clear that they wanted to play here when they joined, but their patience will undoubtedly wear thin if PSG continue to fail to meet expectations in the future.
2-1 PSG wins
Further Reading
MLS Week in Review: April 8-14, Seattle Get a Statement Win and Atlanta Get Their First Win
How Each Team in the Champions League Quarterfinals can Advance to the Semifinals
Contact me at uneducatedandunqualified@gmail.com if you have any questions.
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