By Ian Laird
@UneducatedU on Twitter
After last wee’ks first leg ties all teams are still in contention to advance to the semifinals as three of the four fixtures are within one goal heading into the second leg, while the other, Liverpool-Porto, is just a two goal advantage and Porto will be hosting the second leg after threatening to score on multiple occasions in the first leg. With each tie still up in the air lets look at how each team could manage to advance to the semifinals and focus on key players who will need to step up in the second leg.
Juventus vs Ajax
First Leg Score: 1-1
How Juventus wins: With the absence of Frenkie De Jong in the midfield for Ajax, Miralem Pjanic, Blaise Matuidi, and whoever the third midfielder is need to control the flow of the game in the midfield. Right now they have the advantage on away goals as well so they can likely set up more defensively rather than chasing Ajax with their possession based attack which could leave them vulnerable and spread out. Juventus will instead likely look to hit out on the counter with individual talents like Cristiano Ronaldo, Federico Bernardeschi, and Mario Mandzukic likely matching up one on one with defenders as Ajax’s fullbacks will likely be pushing forward. Defensively they will need to stay disciplined with their fullbacks, a combination of two of Alex Sandro, Joao Cancelo, and Mattia De Sciglio, not getting to ambitious in pushing forward leaving Juventus exposed on the back end. Daniele Rugani will also need to come up huge as he hasn’t looked particularly stable in recent weeks in place of the injured Giorgio Chiellini and will likely be targeted by Ajax’s swarming attack.
How Ajax wins: Without Frenkie De Jong, Donny van de Beek will be tasked with directing the midfield offensively and controlling the pace of the game. He was excellent in the first leg along with De Jong and Lasse Schone both in attack and defensively where they were asked to man mark Juventus’ midfielders. That defensive scheme stifled any attempt by Juventus to build out of the midfield, and they instead were forced down the flanks for most of their attacks. De Jong’s absence will also likely mean there will be personnel changes as Dusan Tadic will drop from the striker role to an attacking midfield role while van de Beek will shift back to a more traditional midfield role. In place of Tadic up top either Kasper Dolberg or Klaas-Jan Huntelaar will start, and they offer much different dimensions than Tadic. They are less free flowing and more direct options which may hurt Ajax as many of their chances were created by overloading one side of the field and using quick interchanges to get players in on goal. Additionally, Noussair Mazraoui will be back from a yellow card suspension that carried over from the round of sixteen, and he will be restored to his starting position at right-back giving Ajax one of their most dynamic options going forward. They need to push for a goal meaning Matthijs de Ligt will have to come up big often dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo one on one.
Score Prediction: 2-1 Juventus wins and advances 3-2 on aggregate
Without Frenkie De Jong Ajax will be without their top player, and they simply won’t have the same level of talent as Juventus. They could draw level 1-1 late in the game, but Juventus’ ability to bring someone off the bench like Douglas Costa, Paulo Dybala, or Moise Kean who might be the hottest player in European football at this point is a difference maker and they will have the edge in the final half hour which could lead to them getting a late winner.
Manchester United vs Barcelona
First Leg Score: 0-1
How Manchester United wins: For starters a switch back to a four man defense rather than the back three that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer used in the first game would be a step in the right direction. In the first leg their wingbacks got pinned back allowing Barcelona to attack in waves against them without United having a way to relieve pressure other than long balls to the forward line. Not helping matters was a depleted midfield as Fred and Scott McTominay got the start over Nemanja Matic and Ander Herrera with the former missing due to injuries, and the latter being left out by choice of Solskjaer. Matic is unequivocally one of the most integral players for United serving as the defensive rock in the midfield, while Herrera also provides some defensive steel and would be a solid option to help shut down the Barcelona midfield though Fred isn’t necessarily a bad option either. This game won’t be won in the midfield though as United need goals, especially given the fact that their leaky back line likely won’t be able to contain Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez. A front line of Romelu Lukaku, Marcus Rashford, and either Jesse Lingard or Anthony Martial offers plenty of options in the attacking third, and their pace and physicality should give the somewhat slower Barcelona back line issues. The wings will be a particularly key area as well as Jordi Alba and Nelson Semedo may push up allowing for United to find pockets of space to occupy behind the back line. United likely have no hope of grinding out a low scoring game and instead should look to turn this game into a high pace game where they can hope to outscore Barcelona relying on their youth and energy to generate goals.
How Barcelona wins: After sitting nine starters over the weekend Barcelona should be rested and can take advantage of their fresh legs to stretch United who will be operating with a different defensive setup once again as Luke Shaw will be suspended meaning either the inexperienced Diogo Dalot or Marcos Rojo will be starting at left back. Allowing Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez to dominate the game and show off their creativity in the attacking third would almost guarantee a victory for Barcelona as their ability to control the flow of the game could help Barcelona settle into their possession based style of play and stymie any momentum that United try to create going forward. In the midfield Arthur has grown into his role as the season has gone along, but he, along with Sergio Busquets, will have to be much better than they were in the first leg as they struggled to find any space or a rhythm in the middle of the field. If they are able to control possession and feed the ball to the forward line and Ivan Rakitic it could be a long day for Paul Pogba and company as they will be asked to expound a lot of energy to try and break up passes and force turnovers. Defensively Barcelona can essentially duplicate what they did in the first leg where they prevented United from generating a single shot on goal, with the forward and midfield lines working hard to win the ball back early while an experienced back line prevents United’s pacy attackers from getting the ball and running at them while also providing cover for each other against balls in behind.
Score Prediction: 1-0 Barcelona wins and advances 2-0 on aggregate
You feel United have to do better in the attacking third than they did in the first game when they didn’t trouble Barcelona at all, but with a world class goalkeeper in Marc-Andre ter Stegen and a solid back line it would take something special to produce a goal. At the other end of the field Messi and Suarez are simply too talented to not produce at least one or two moments of magic.
Porto vs Liverpool
First Leg Score: 0-2
How Porto wins: Despite the 2-0 deficit in the first leg Porto actually played decently and were unlucky to not score at least once. This despite a surprise formation change by manager Sergio Conceicao who opted for a three back formation rater than a four back system. Making the formation even more odd was the fact that he also played with two wingers in a 3-4-3 type formation, but the wingbacks never really played as midfielders instead getting pinned back almost like fullbacks as they attempted to contain Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. That meant there was a huge gap between the defensive line and the forward line which was bridged by only two midfielders. Danilo Pereira seemed to cope with the demanding task fairly well as his workhorse like demeanor and style of play allowed him to remain active all game, but for the younger Oliver Torres it seemed to much to ask for. He was constantly caught out of position and exposed by the Liverpool trio of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, and Naby Keita in the midfield who worked the channels well. A simple switch to a 4-4-2 or 4-4-3 should alleviate some of those issues providing more support for the midfield duo as will the return of Hector Herrera, but the rest of the team also needs to step up. Defensively, Eder Militao needs to be rock solid and showcase some of the potential that was enticing enough for Real Madrid to break the bank and spend €50 million for the 21-year-old center-back. The veterans alongside him also need to be stable and constantly aware of the interchanging runs of Roberto Firmino, Salah, and Mane so as to not allow Liverpool to get the killer goal that would require Porto to get four goals due to the away goals rule. Then in the attacking third Moussa Marega and Yacine Brahimi, once he was subbed on, constantly provided problems for the Liverpool defense, and if not for some poor finishing from Marega they could’ve easily scored two or three goals. The return of Herrera will help this area as well as many of Porto’s chances came from balls in the channels for Marega to run on to, and Herrera is adept at unlocking opposing defenses with his passing and will surely create a few more chances in the second leg.
How Liverpool wins: Jurgen Klopp will know that all it will take is one goal to virtually seal this game away, and he will likely set up his Liverpool side to be aggressive in the attacking third. Because of the tight title race in the Premier League he didn’t have the luxury of resting any players over the weekend meaning the trio of Jordan Henderson, Naby Keita, and Fabinho that was so successful in the first leg was forced to start once again against Chelsea on Sunday. That doesn’t mean Klopp necessarily won’t play them again in the second leg, but he will have to be wary of possible tired legs, and with the return of Andrew Robertson from suspension he will be free to play James Milner or Georginio Wijnaldum in the midfield instead. He will have a choice opposite Virgil van Dijk along the back line as well with both Joel Matip and Dejan Lovren healthy and ready to play. You’d think he would opt for Lovren given the experience he has in the Champions League and how integral he was to their second place run in the competition last year, but Matip played extremely well against Chelsea this weekend and is far from a poor option. Where this game will be won for Liverpool though is on the wings where Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold will be providing steady service into the box while Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah can burn defenders down the wing themselves or cut inside to accommodate the overlapping runs of Alexander-Arnold and Robertson. Down the right hand side the attacking ambition of Alex Telles, Porto’s left-back, will leave space for Liverpool to overload that flank, while the much slower and older Maxi Pereira will be at a clear disadvantage against the pace of Robertson and Mane.
Score Prediction: 2-1 Porto wins but Liverpool advances 3-2 on aggregate
Once Liverpool get their goal I could see them inviting pressure as they attempt to see the game out with their significant advantage, and the talent and attacking firepower of Porto will allow them to mount a mini comeback, but a four goal game against a back line marshaled by Virgil van Dijk is a tall task that I doubt Porto will be able to meet.
Manchester City vs Tottenham
First Leg Score: 0-1
How Manchester City wins: Pep Guardiola experimented with his team in the first leg leaving out arguably the two best players from last season, Leroy Sane and Kevin De Bruyne, and while they have had poor seasons this campaign there is no denying their talent and the fact that they would’ve likely helped contribute to a better result. The return of Bernardo Silva should also help generate offense for City as he will be able to play those trademark long dissecting balls that pick apart opposing defenses. City will load up on attacking talent for this game and other than Fernandinho and their center-backs they will throw everyone forward. Kyle Walker will likely play at right-back and his pace and physicality will allow him to track back even when he pushes forward, while on the left side Guardiola will have to choose from Fabian Delph, Benjamin Mendy, and Aymeric Laporte, all of whom are more measured players in terms of pushing forward, but they are still willing attackers. City will undoubtedly have the majority of possession and chances, so it will simply be a matter of converting their chances if they are to advance.
How Tottenham wins: Without Harry Kane Tottenham have a good record, and they are allowed to play a more free flowing style of play rather than more direct getting balls into the feet or to the head of Harry Kane. Lucas Moura is the obvious replacement for him with Heung-min Son pushing in to a more central role with Moura either underneath him or alongside him closer to a wing role. Dele Alli also broke his hand in the game, but he should be good to go and will partner with Christian Eriksen to form a front four with Son and Lucas. Together those four will offer more pace, energy, and athleticism than Tottenham typically would have with Kane and they will be able to stretch City a bit more vertically. They will need Son and Lucas to come up big for them getting in behind defenders and running the channels to not only create opportunities, but also occupy City defenders and midfielders so they can’t fling as many numbers forward. Behind them Moussa Sissoko is an obvious start, but with the return of Victor Wanyama there will be a choice between Wanyama and Harry Winks with Wanyama providing more physicality while Winks will provide more in terms of relieving pressure. I would opt for Wanyama as Tottenham lost some size on set pieces with Kane out and Wanyama can serve to replace some of that. Defensively they will need to be inch perfect as they will likely be forced to bunker in, and with that in mind Danny Rose and Kieran Trippier will offer the most upside at the fullback positions as they are both fairly solid without the ball, but can also initiate counter attacks by getting forwards quickly.
Score Prediction: 2-1 Manchester City wins but Tottenham advances 2-2 on aggregate via away goals
Manchester City will almost undoubtedly win this game given the sheer volume of chances they will likely create, but all Tottenham need is one chance on the break to force City to get three goals at home, and given the way Son and Lucas are able to expose opposing defenders that seems far from out of the realm of possibility.
Further Reading
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